Work Package 5-Urban Migration Modelling in Climate Change context
Work Package 5 is led by Co-PI Van Berkel working with Co-Applicants Lemos, Victoria Field and Omar-Gates to produce participatory scenarios of future urban growth under climate migration to support decision-making for case cities and their residents. The scenarios will be based on demographic trend, land use data and stakeholders’ (e.g., decision-makers, residents/migrants, frontline community representatives) preferences of where urban growth is likely/should occur to better manage climate change risk in an equitable, just and sustainable way. We will pilot and co-produce our project-wide approach in Detroit,on urban area vulnerable to stormwater and coastal flooding, while at the same time grappling with broader challenges of urban renewal and greenspace planning.
Research Questions.
Research questions include: 1) How can participatory spatial modelling and development of alternative scenarios increase decisionmakers’ understanding of both stressors and opportunities, including equity and justice issues, for adaptation? 2) How does in-migration interact with other existing stressors including climate impact (e.g. flooding, heat events), socioeconomic conditions, social inequality, and climate adaptation (e.g.,green infrastructure) across space and time? 3) Can co-produced scenarios produce better identification of stressors and adaptation opportunities, and equitable strategies.
Methods.
To expand WP5 ability to engage with the GLR and LVR case cities and contribute o climate knowledge exchange (see WP 7), team members will host a one-day virtual training workshop (month 11) for city planners, policymakers, CLARS research team, academics including Early Career Eesearcher (ECR) and students (e.g., post-graduates) on how to parameterise PIVOT. This ‘Trainthe-Trainer’ training will kick-start customisation of the platform based on case city level data from participants. With virtual support from Co-PI Van Berkel and University of Michigan research team, the trainees will test and use knowledge gained to run sessions with policymakers, educators (academics and ECRs), businesses and representatives of migrant groups during the stakeholder engagement events in each case cities (WPs 2-4). Here, participants will co-produce maps to identify vulnerabilities (i.e., flooding hazard), and prioritise land use, including high- and low-density housing, or a combination within neighbourhoods using PIVOT to simulate urban development plans/strategies up to 2050. In Detroit (Michigan state), we will test our data collection and analytical approaches for wider implementation and collect pre- and post-surveys and preference maps of participants to assess if engagement with PIVOT and other participants changes their attitudes and priorities. Such data will be valuable for understanding varying migration pressures, vulnerabilities, experiences, and best practices for addressing climate migration and adaptation between GLR and LVB. This work package uses common statistical approaches to compare surveys, and spatial analysis of the priority maps to understand the impact of these participatory approaches on decision-making.
This work package utilises PIVOT (participatory GIS urban deVelOpment Tool) online decision support tool (DST) to model and visualise urban land change scenarios based on participants’ preferences during the Stakeholder engagement events (WPs 1-5). The tool displays urban projections, current city conditions (e.g., income inequality, racial and economic segregation, and public services access) and climate-related stressors (e.g.,projected flood, and heat events risk) on an interactive online map and will facilitate city-specific deliberations surrounding adaptation to migration and climate change (Van Berkel et al., 2023).
Intellectual Impact and Merit
WP5 will develop a better understanding of how co-produced DSTs can inform urban growth and land use scenarios that address not only preparation for future residents but also consider the preferences and well-being deficits of current residents living under risky and unequitable conditions. The data collected will also be used by participants during co-production activities in WPs 2-4 and feeds directly into WP 7.